Fig. 3

Estimated infection prevalence curves compared with observed seroprevalence data. a Country-level comparisons. b City-level comparisons for Geneva, London and New York. c Regional-level comparisons, using six of the eight regions of England. North West and Yorkshire are aggregated together and London is shown above in b: After adjusting the reconstructed new cases per day curves for potential asymptomatic infections and for the delay between onset of symptoms and confirmation, we sum up the cases and divide by the population in each country or region, to estimate the total percentage infected. We are then able to directly compare the model estimates to existing seroprevalence results (black points, with 95% binomial CI above and below). Dashed line shows the end of the serological testing period; therefore, we lag the seroprevalence estimate by the mean delay between infection and seroconversion, which is likely to be around 14 days [17]